Buy: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson is one of the biggest winners of the NFL offseason. Jackson signed a massive $255,000,000 contract Day 1 of the NFL Draft, meanwhile the Ravens drafted the electric Zay Flowers out of Boston College. In addition, Baltimore signed Odell Beckham Jr. early in the free agent process, who if he can stay healthy, will be a valuable add to the offense. With the much-disliked Greg Roman out of the building, new OC Todd Monken will prefer a pass-first spread offense. With the new weapons and a new scheme, Jackson will thrive in 2023.
Sell: Ryan Tannehill
2022 was a disappointment for Ryan Tannehill whose combo of injuries and poor play hampered his future outlook. Furthermore, the Titans are entering the beginning stages of a rebuild, with AJ Brown out of town and Derrick Henry reportedly on the chopping block. But Tennessee drafted Will Levis, who reportedly exceeded expectations at minicamp. If the Titans fully give into the youth movement in 2023, Tannehill could be on the move.
Buy: Geno Smith
Finally, Geno Smith broke out in 2022. Smith threw for 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and led the Seahawks to a playoff appearance. Somehow, the Seahawks improved an already elite offense and drafted Ohio State standout receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th overall). Smith-Njigba will provide another excellent target for the accurate Smith. Also, Seattle drafted UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet, whose great receiving ability will improve the backfield. I believe that Smith’s 2022 success is not a benchmark, but a stepping stone for the future.
Sell: Justin Fields
I’m not nearly as high on Justin Fields as many fans and sportswriters heading into the 2023 season. Fields did show growth in 2022, but the bar was incredibly low. The Bears have improved the personnel around Fields by drafting tackle Darnell Wright and acquiring Pro-Bowler DJ Moore in a trade, while also signing running back D’onta Foreman. Fields possesses traits that you can’t teach, such as elite speed and athleticism. However, he does not have the vaunted “clutch gene” or the ability to win close games. In fact, Fields had some of his worse performances in close games, such as the December 4th game vs. the Green Bay Packers. He turned the ball over in two of the Bears’ final drives, ultimately costing them the game. Fields will need to become a better player in the fourth for the Bears to improve in 2023.
Buy: Trevor Lawrence
In 2022, Trevor Lawrence showed significant improvement and led the Jags to a divisional championship. The Jags bolstered Lawrence’s weapons with the additions of Calvin Ridley and draft picks Anton Harrison and Brenton Strange. T-Law is entering his second year under Doug Pederson and looking at history, QBs usually take the next step in year two of an offense. With history and talent on his side, expect big things in Duval.
Sell: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray will miss most of the 2023 season, but when he returns I don’t expect much. Murray was not himself at all before his injury, becoming one of the most turnover-prone QBs in the league. Now Arizona has new leaders at the helm, with Kliff Kingsbury out and Johnathan Gannon in. Additionally, the some Cards’s franchise pieces are out the door with Deandre Hopkins gone and Budda Baker seeking a trade. As a result, Arizona posts one of the league’s worst rosters and seemingly building for the future, potentially, a future without Murray.
